Decision science for ambiguous business questions.

01 — Retention

Acquisition quality vs. durable value: a multi-method retention diagnosis

When a competitor disruption drove a 280K subscriber spike, was it real growth or borrowed users? Three independent lenses on the same question.

Decision impact

Reframed leadership conversation from acquisition volume to activation quality and retained LTV.

02 — Prediction

Subscriber churn prediction: survival curves and early engagement signals

Can first-month behavior separate "binge and leave" users from habit builders? Acquisition channel, billing, and engagement decomposition.

Decision impact

Surfaced channel-level churn risk and "binge and leave" patterns informing onboarding and acquisition spend.

When customers churn at renewal: was it the price or the project?

Separating overlapping churn drivers when promo expiry and use-case completion arrive together.

LLM summarizers skip the identification step

Connecting LLM summarization failures to causal identification discipline.

DiD, synthetic control, RDD, and ITS on a synthetic subscription pricing dataset, with LTV translation and breakeven price calculation.

Three-stage LLM pipeline (extract, synthesize, audit) for decision-grade meeting analysis with explicit grounding and bounded fabrication controls.

Pipeline that extracts and categorizes churn reasons from unstructured text using weak supervision, transformer fine-tuning, and prompt-engineered LLM summaries.